As sea levels rise, residents of Pacific island nations are losing their homes, enduring the consequences of a lack of adequate funding, and can’t find a way out. As typhoons hit these island nations, coastal communities are devastated with severe flooding and a lack of adequate plumbing, sewage, and electricity for street light poles create dangerous living conditions. The island nations are losing the race to climate change that has been ignored around the globe for decades.

The fact that the island nations are losing the race in regard to climate change creates a vulnerability of dependency for these countries. As numerous typhoons impact these communities, these, often impoverished, island nations are forced to absorb the costs which they cannot afford to do so. In the case of Vanuatu, three cyclones in 2023, each rated a category four or higher, killed many and collapsed the local community. The island dealt with two successive category four cyclones in 48 hours, affecting over 250,000 individuals. According to ACAPS, this rapid succession of two cyclones destroyed 90% of the housing in the Tafea and Shefa provinces. The third cyclone damaged 10,000 homes and killed 2 people. According to the International Labor Organization, the cyclones caused $433 million worth of damage and that the recovery effort would take $773 million.

The recovery effort and costs exceeded what Vanuatu could afford given its national budget. This resulted in the country relying on international aid for recovery, particularly Australia. Following the cyclones and other domestic issues within Vanuatu, the series of cyclones has allowed Australia to foster a political relationship with the country. In the years 2024 and 2025, according to the Australian government Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), Australia has contributed $114.4 million and is projected to contribute $85.6 million in the years 2025 and 2026.

This funding has elevated Australia’s diplomatic position within the country of Vanuatu. Australia’s aid mostly is understood in a positive light, aiding Vanuatu in developing social services and infrastructure. Beyond disaster relief, the funding has also been extended to advancing Vanuatu’s police force, maritime security, equipment, and training and security infrastructure. According to DFAT, Australia has aided the redevelopment of the COOK and Tiroas barracks, creating a long-term investment and operational link between the two countries.

However, from a global standpoint, this political link, as positive as it may be for both countries, is part of a broader competition for diplomatic leverage. The presidential palace and Ministry of Finance offices in Vanuatu were donated by China to the island nation and according to ABC News, there was no obvious exchange in concession for the buildings.

In the case of Vanuatu, both countries treat the island nation out of goodwill but in different cases in Southeast Asia, China has “debt-trapped” countries, gaining political power through investment in infrastructure. As part of the Belt Road Initiative (BRI), Cambodia received substantial funding from Beijing for the Funan Techo Canal (FTC), linking deepwater ports along Cambodia’s coastline. According to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), China contributed 49% of the funding for the canal, elevating their political status within Cambodia. Per CFR, the prime minister of Cambodia, Hun Sen declared that if Cambodia doesn’t rely on China, who will the country rely on? This sentiment explains the exact vulnerability that Pacific island nations face. Their powerless state and inability to recover from climate disasters or other societal issues forces these countries to rely on foreign aid for support.

In the case of Cambodia, which lacks the economic power to negotiate against China, the country has fallen into a dependency on their investment to advance. On the surface, the exact cause of why China is investing this much money into Cambodia is puzzling. Cambodia is not an economic superpower within Southeast Asia and Chinese businesses are not reaping enough benefit that justifies such extensive foreign investment from Beijing. Yet, within the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Cambodian leadership have repeatedly sided with China, especially on issues regarding the reunification of Taiwan with China and disputes within the South China Sea.

Although China may not enjoy the monetary gain of a relationship with Cambodia, their diplomatic presence is felt at ASEAN conferences, cementing their role within Southeast Asia. Cambodia acts as a pawn that China can use to leverage political power and act as a thorn within the Southeast Asian region, hindering their ability to advance initiatives that hinder China’s foreign agenda.

Yet it is how countries decide to leverage this vulnerability that can decide whether they become a puppet to another country or are able to thrive. In the case of the Solomon Islands, Australia has significantly aided them in developing the police force and defense personnel during times of civil unrest. According to DFAT, from the years 2021 to 2024, more than 1600 security personnel from the Australian Federal Police and Australian Defense Force were deployed to the Solomon Islands. However, these officers were not permanently stationed at these islands, concluding their tenure on August 18th 2024.

This is a stark contrast from the debt-trap diplomacy that we see from China. Australia is taking a more politically and diplomatically neutral stance, aiding countries through their struggles, ultimately leading to greater stability within the Oceania region. Whether that be aiding in disaster relief or helping a country train their police force, Australia is gaining political influence, not political leverage like China. Australia is presenting themself as a country of goodwill, supporting these island nations in their development, building political connections and alliances. However, there is no physical property that is binding or pressuring these island nations to follow a certain agenda, which is seen through the diplomacy of China within this region.

The vulnerabilities that these island nations face due to environmental disasters or social unrest open up the countries to potential exploitation by larger countries but also an avenue for prosperity in the future. With this tool of dependency, these countries have the opportunity to pool investments from other countries, building their own society, like we see with Australia. However, political leaders of these countries may also turn to financially binding projects, forcing their countries to be a vassal state in their region for a global superpower. The vulnerability has the ability to be both prosperous and detrimental for these island nations and the obligation falls onto these nations on how they will choose to use this potentially valuable or dangerous opportunity.